Notes from another seminar I attended at Focus on Farming… Dr. Paul Khors, Assistant State Veterinarian presented on disease traceability. This is one of those boring topics where it’s easy for everybody to think, oh that doesn’t really apply to me. But, in fact, a major epidemic in animal disease in our state or country would impact just about everybody!
Impact to our Pocketbooks
Agriculture makes up 12% of our state economy. 1/3 of the meat products produced in Washington leave the state. We have a $20M poultry industry. If we were to have a Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) or Avian Flu outbreak, it would shut our borders for exports within 24 hours of detection. The impact to the economy would be quite dramatic.
The indirect costs from an outbreak far outweigh the direct costs. (The following, I think, are national estimates.) The direct costs are incurred from the mass slaughter of infected animals, and the overhead associated with managing this activity are estimated at 24 million animals and a cost of $30-60B. The estimated indirect costs are $140B loss of trade, 17% of the US GDP, and 860,000 jobs. Yikes! This is not to mention the psychological impact of people who are directly affected by the tragedy. During the UK FMD outbreak, there were 80 suicides associated with the event!
Rapid Spread
Avian Flu is particularly concerning since humans can get it and spread it, as well as birds. And birds are everywhere! All of the “H” flus start with waterfowl, and then jump species. Migratory birds switch continents via Alaska. Recently they found a ten year old bird with a Japan tag in Whatcom county!
Though FMD is not zoonotic, humans can spread it to animals from their shoes, clothing, etc. if they have been in contact with infected animals. Just one person carrying it to a local farm and infecting one herd of animals could be the catalyst. From there, wildlife spread it to neighboring farms, people visiting those farms get on planes and visit other farms, animals are shipped and commingled, people track stuff home from auctions and shows. FMD is carried by all ungulates-pigs, cattle, sheep, goats, and even some llamas. Sheep are a silent carrier with no outward symptoms, so are of special concern. Within days, it can spread across the country and be totally out of control.
Dr. Khors showed a graphical computer model on screen which illustrates how fast something like FMD spreads. It was amazing to watch the vectors travel and multiply as the clock ticks by, indicating hours from initial import of disease. By the time it would be first detected in our country, the genie would already be out of the bottle and the disease all over the place. It is estimated that for each hour the disease goes undetected, economic loss increases by $10M.
Models show that limiting livestock show
s to <4 days curtails the spread of disease. So fairs should try to change-out animals this often, versus having them hang out for longer together.
Bioterrorism is still very much a concern. I thought Dr. Kohrs said they had caught someone at SeaTac airport with a vial of FMD in his pocket- but I didn’t quite catch the details. I thought, gee, I don’t remember hearing that in the news! And indeed, I can’t find reference to it on the web. I suppose border patrol doesn’t advertise every incident they catch, in order to avoid freaking everybody out. But it makes sense, we have to realize border patrol is catching bad guys every day. It’s the guy they miss that’s the problem…
Dealing with an Outbreak
In planning for what we would do in an outbreak- there are several conundrums. Just managing to dispose of that many slaughtered animals is nearly impossible. In Europe, they burned the carcasses in open pyres, but now they think that may have spread the disease more. Burial, or closed incineration, may be better. If the dead animals are transported, this increases risk of spreading infection, so it’s best to move them as little as possible. Composting in place- even right inside a barn- is another option. Bird flu is compost-able (killed by the heat of compost piles). For commercial flocks of birds, they euthanize them by gassing them right in their barns. I didn’t catch the statistic, but Dr. Khors said that if we had to bury everything at Washington’s largest auction house, it would be a trench many miles long! So this is something they are always thinking about, is how we would handle this problem.
Traceability
Though the issue of animal traceability is controversial, this is why the USDA and state Ag offices want it so badly. Once an outbreak occurs, they need fast ways of figuring out where affected animals came from and where they have been. From there, they have to trace through exposed animals and try to find all of the carriers as quickly as possible. The heavily debated National Animal Identification System (NAIS) has been canceled, and now the onus is on states to manage animal traceability.
Washington state handles 90,000 paper documents each year which track animal movements. It’s obvious that this is too much paper- it would take hundreds of man hours to sift through all that, if needed (and in fact, did, when we had the mad cow incident here). So, they are working hard on moving all of this data to electronic systems. An electronic CVI (Certificate of Veterinary Inspection) is being piloted now.
Ear tags are still the primary method of identifying large animals. Microchips haven’t been a satisfactory solution for beef, they migrate too much into edible tissue. USDA can’t live with the possibility of a glass RFID chip turning up in someone’s steak… 
The cost aspect is negligible; though RFID tags are $2, versus 10 cents for a regular ear tag, big producers find RFID saves in labor. Animals can just be scanned with a wand versus having to hand-note ear tag numbers.
People Who Lie Awake at Night Worrying About This…
So, that is a snippet of a day-in-the-life of a state veterinarian or WSDA office employee. They spend a lot of time thinking about this problem, how to estimate and measure it, how to prevent it; and being prepared to deal with it if it happens. It’s good for all of us to digest, it would seem; though nobody enjoys thinking about it.
December 3, 2012 at 9:57 am
I honestly don’t know if animals are traceable in the current system, particularly when passed through an auction. When you present an animal for sale at an auction you are asked no questions about it. When you purchase an animal at an auction, you recieve no information. The check is made out to whatever name you choose to give them; business name, personal name — no matter. They don’t ask for ID, and about the only thing they do check is cattle brands, if there is any brand.
December 3, 2012 at 6:54 pm
When the NAIS issue first came out, I paid little attention to it, I’m all for safe food, right? And the “mad cow” situation was a little scary. Then, a couple of things came to light, one, if we hadn’t been feeding freaking sheep to cows, it never would have happened, so that’s not a tracking issue, it’s a, well, sanity issue? Nature issue? Second, I noted an article about a state (was it Illinois?) wanting to make public all registered owners of guns, complete with addresses! Many in the gun crowd have been screaming for years that registration would try to be used against them one day, that was validated. And i did read, not sure if it is true, that pre-processed meat products (hamburger) coming from other countries need not be from a similar program, again putting the onus on our farmers only. I never knew being a small time farmer was so political and involved!
Again, I love your blog, it’s informative and thought provoking.
December 4, 2012 at 5:04 am
Bruce, yeah, I dunno know how it’s supposed to work at auctions. At least with sheep, they aren’t supposed to trade hands or move anywhere other than the slaughter channel w/o a scrapie tag, so presumably the auction house could report on the winning bidder & the tag number, which would then give forward and backward traceability on that sheep (because the state knows whose tag it is). But I don’t know how it’s supposed to work with other species. And auctions are the place where diseased animals move the most; versus private treaty, people are a little less likely to sell a sick animal.
December 4, 2012 at 5:38 am
texomamorganlady- I think there is quite a bit of question surrounding the “proof” that the feeding practices caused mad cow disease. Some people think that the experts didn’t (and still don’t) really know for sure, but needed to confidently point to some explanation to stem public panic and keep people eating beef. 😉 There are some interesting alternative theories about what could cause it; about which I’m not well-versed. But I think some have pointed to the strong chemical pesticides people use as topical drenches on cattle (absorbed along the line of the spinal cord…). In scrapie in sheep, I’ve read the theory that it came about after everybody stopped feeding copper. Since deer and other wild ruminants also commonly get TSE, and clearly they’re not eating dairy cow ration, it does call into question whether we really know the cause or not.
I dunno know what the right answer is regarding traceability. I’m in the SFCP in order to make my sheep marketable to more people; and part of that entails sending a report annually to the state saying where all my sheep went that left the farm- name, address, phone #; and also where any new ones came from. If an outbreak were to happen, it’s possible that non-participants will be hit the hardest, as the government may choose to cull anything where they can’t confirm the animals weren’t exposed via previously submitted records.
Re: meat that comes into this country into the food supply, I think that’s a different issue. It’s a little shocking to ponder, but I think it’s treated with less importance, because it has limited scope and is a fairly manageable problem (recall that source and it’s over). Versus a fatal disease rapidly and uncontrollably spreading through live animals in our country (and in the case of FMD, it doesn’t even make people sick), it’s the economic impact that’s of such great concern. Comparing a foodborne illness outbreak- even a big one that sickens a few thousand people, versus clobbering 17% of the GDP… I think the GDP wins! (For better or worse.) 😐 Surely government officials spend time on both problems, but they seem most worried about this one.
December 6, 2012 at 4:26 am
CF, regarding disease vectors: I read an article in The New Yorker a few years back about neo-smallpox. Because our planet is now a global community, one infected person in India on a trans-global flight could pass the contagion to the two-three hundred passengers on, say, a mega-carrier like a DC 10 or 747 and those passengers in turn upon reaching their destination could spread the disease exponentially like wildfire. And like you say, there are avians aplenty out there (dratted starlings). A scene from the Paul Newman film Hud is etched in my memory: when the family herd contracted HMD and had to be destroyed. A bulldozer carved out a huge pit, box-canyon like, and the herd was driven in. Then the lever-action rifles and gunshots; then the lime; then the unraveling of the family business….
On a lighter note: “Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow…” The studded tires go on next week. TMJ
December 6, 2012 at 8:47 am
Down here in Oregon, all animals going through the poultry auction (poultry, fowl, rabbits, house birds, etc.) are swabbed for AI. When you register to sell, and I think to buy as well, all of your information is taken. If any animal tests positive (even for low path AI) both the seller and buyer are contacted. Anymore, even certain strains of low path AI are reportable diseases and culling is the control with a 30 day wait period prior to restocking.
I’m going to be going through that as I’ll be raising meat birds and selling them through the auction in Woodburn next year. At least when they cull the owner is supposed to be compensated (if there are funds to do so, which isn’t always the case).
Back when USDA was trying to implement NAIS I spent a couple of years researching imports/exports of meat and live animals, traceability systems in different countries, and animal disease and epidemiology. The two diseases I concentrated on were avian influenza and FMD. I also researched other countries sanitary statuses and protocols.
The big issue with FMD and imports is that in some countries it’s controlled with vaccination. Vaccination doesn’t keep an animal from getting the disease, it pretty much just stops them from being symptomatic. Often times they’ll still shed virus particles and because it doesn’t take many particles to infect and sicken an animal who’s immune system is naive, that’s problematic. The countries who enjoy a premium status for exports for FMD succeptable animals and meats are countries like the USA, who are FMD free without vaccination.
Pigs are especially problematic as they act like reactors, producing and shedding more virus than any other animals. A few years ago, a pig was found to have lessions that could have been FMD at a stock yard in the USA (I think it was in the midwest). Samples were taken but the animal was allowed to travel on to its destination. I was shocked that there wasn’t a stop movement order issued for it and all the animals it may have come in contact with. The president was notified, and measures were taken for USDA to move incase the test came back positive for FMD. Fortunately it was only vesicular stomatitis (which presents symptoms very similar to FMD but is not as contagious). That one didn’t make it into the press much either.
December 7, 2012 at 2:46 am
Joanne, yes, I imagine when a problem, or potential problem is found, especially if it’s realized later that it wasn’t handle ideally, the agencies involved don’t shine a bit spotlight on it for the press. 😉 And maybe just as well, as I think the public and export markets are so sensitive, always on the verge of alarm.
December 7, 2012 at 2:50 am
Yeah, I’m sure that’s why no one said anything or put a stop movement order out. That would have spooked the export markets big time. Unfortunately, it would have also spread FMD far and wide in this country, had it been FMD.
That’s one reason why USDA and some states want a system like NAIS so bad. So they cna to ahead and let a suspect animal continue on and then be able to come along and pick up the pieces if it turns out to be something serious.
December 7, 2012 at 3:34 am
I will say, I don’t envy the people who have to make those calls.
December 7, 2012 at 3:41 am
TMJ- I haven’t seen that movie, sounds like a horrific scene. Little House on the Prairie had a good episode on Anthrax spreading through local sheep and making most of the town deathly ill. It raises all sorts of interesting questions- of unethical decisions by the animal owner who culls sick animals an sells the meat, and of others seeing a new market for the needed medicine for the outbreak and trying to make a profit! Those shows make me smile, so much of the content describing life 100 years ago is still relevant today!